AR&D Reinventing Local Media

Prediction lists are silly. I like to tell people who ask for my predictions that “The predictions are free, it’s the advice that I charge for.” Why are we so interested in predictions? Who would have predicted what happened in 2008? Most prediction lists are based upon what happened the previous year anyway. It’s like going to the track — people pick horses based upon what the horse did in the previous few races. Not bad, but nobody sees the new, untested horse out of nowhere.

Any why 10, anyway? It’s the industry standard. Do we owe it to David Letterman? A Top Five list looks lazy and a Top Nine list looks incomplete. Top 15 is too many.

So, with that said, in no order, here are my 10 predictions for the media industry in 2009.

1. Local media will start to appear on iPhones and Blackberries as iApps. This will appear like popcorn — one will do it, then a few more, then a ton will follow. But the leader in each market will be the only that gets the space.
2. More newspapers will go online-only. This is a wussy prediction, so let’s jazz it up. At least five medium-major market papers will do this.
3. Ditto, five major magazines.
4. Three television station groups and five newspaper chains will declare Chapter 11.
5. At least one TV station group will declare Chapter 7.
6. One of the networks and one of the cable news channels will combine news operations.
7. 10% of newsgathering will be done by VJs by the end of the year.
8. Google will make a bid for a major newspaper.
9. There will be a breakthrough, profitable online-only “TV” series.
10. The market will recover to 12,000 by Dec. 31, 2009. Oil will be at $100/barrel.
11. The Yankees will spend a fortune and still not win the World Series.

Dang — I ran over and went to 11 anyway. Again — I have no business making these predictions. (Especially #10.) But none of them are outrageous. And if I had made them five years ago, you would have laughed them off. Also, I think it’s splitsville for Brad and Angelina, but I don’t see where that’s especially useful for you.